Sunday, June 8, 2008

What Joe Girardi should be reading

Because so much in baseball games falls to chance -- the soft pop up that dies between three fielders, the drive down the line which brushes the chalk, the bizarre definition of a swing held by certain umpires -- it is all the more important for a manager to make the right choice in those instances where a decision is required.

This frequently means deciding not to do anything; in the American League especially, the best and only move is often to let the players play and see what falls into place. When managers decide to assert themselves, bad things can happen. This was very much in evidence in yesterday's thrilling win, when Joe Girardi called for Derek Jeter to bunt in the first inning, invoking his predecessor, whose philosophy of baseball we thought was no longer welcome in the Bronx.

Joe Girardi apparently owns a copy of Baseball Prospectus 2008. Presumably he has an online subscription, too (if not, you have to imagine that he could charge $39.95 to the Yankees). In other words, if he doesn’t know it already, it’s well within his grasp to learn that bunting, on average, produces fewer runs than not bunting with runners on base. By ignoring this simple principle, or failing to crack open a book or do a simple web search that might explain it to him, he is costing his team runs. Maybe he’s more like Torre than we thought.

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